But it is very likely that most influential moves will happen before this, during or shortly after the June 26-27 draft. There is not much salary space in the market at the moment - the problem of cap space congestion that is expected to be alleviated by the summer of 2026 still exists - and the free agent market also lacks star players.

Here are five hottest topics – and 12 influential players – that will be the subject of the 2025 offseason. Will

Giannis continue to stay with the Bucks?

The frenzy surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo might have been quelled during the draft.

The Milwaukee Bucks are currently committed to maintaining their existing route and trying to build a competitive team for next season, while hoping Damian Lillard can make a comeback before the playoffs.

Antetokounmpo himself left the United States to enter the offseason without showing his attitude, creating a disturbing stalemate between the team's number one star and his team.

Meanwhile, the Bucks have some free agents to deal with, including center Brooke Lopez and key backup Bobby Portis - if the latter chooses to jump out of the contract. Other teams in the market will be interested in Lopez and Portis, but the Bucks with two full Bird clauses will be in a very good position if they are prioritized for renewal. And the Bucks seem ready to do so because they believe Antetokounmpo will stay.

In any case, for potential suitors in Antetokounmpo - who still hasn't decided on his future, according to ESPN reporter Shams Charania - they can only decide whether to take a wait-and-see attitude and be patient in case Antetokounmpo decides to apply for a deal later in the summer. There are certainly precedents in this case. Over the years, some big deals have only happened long after the draft and free agent markets opened, including those that changed the league landscape involving Kawhi Leonard, Donovan Mitchell, Kyrie Irving, Lillard, Carl Anthony Towns and Dwight Howard, and these are just a few examples.

But there is also a risk, which is to wait for a battle that may never begin.

The complex Kevin Durant triangle relationship

Last month, when Brian Gregory held a press conference as Phoenix Suns general manager, he used the word "consistency" and its various variants, emphasizing that he plans to keep pace with his boss and coach.

However, keeping aligned with Durant may not be such a priority.

In the transaction discussion, all parties are considering three angles.

This has to be a deal the Suns really want to make, and it is no easy task for a team with an extremely expensive roster, deeply trapped in complex and extremely punitive luxury tax line rules.

This must be the next one Durant wants. Finally, there is another question whether Durant will sign an early contract renewal - he is eligible for another two years, worth $120 million. If Durant is traded to a team that is not on his roster — reportedly including the Miami Heat, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs — would he be willing to sign with it?

If Durant is unwilling to promise that he will stay in a place like the Minnesota Timberwolves for a long time, will the Timberwolves still be willing to trade him? The scope and intensity of the quotation will change greatly depending on whether Durant determines the early renewal. This could affect the Suns’ motivation to trade him before the draft.

Although this is the Suns' plan and preference, it doesn't necessarily allow them to accept an unsatisfactory deal.

So, if this triangle fails to reach the expected agreement and no one gives in, will the Suns directly withdraw Durant from the trading market? Will

star players choose to jump out of the contract? Will their team try to bargain?

LeBron James has a $53 million player option, and comes with a coveted trade veto. James Harden has a $36 million player option and he has just played an All-Star season. Kyrie Irving may miss most of the next season due to a torn ACL, and he also has a $43 million player option. Julius Randle has a $31 million player option and he has just played a strong playoff performance for the Timberwolves.

A year or two ago, it was generally believed that these players would automatically choose to jump out of contract, even star players like Irving who are dealing with serious injuries were no exception.

But as (some) teams become more cautious in dealing with the luxury tax, these decisions become far less certain.

With the scarcity of cap space for each team this summer, this has become a game of whether the team is willing to negotiate with the players.

James, Harden and Irving are likely not going anywhere, while Randall, depending on how Durant's situation develops, may find that the best offer he gets ends up with the Timberwolves as well.

But their teams know this, and may take a tough attitude, which may lead to some players — including those not on this roster — directly opting to execute contracts and becoming one-year contract players.

This is also the situation Durant may find himself in, depending on how his situation develops.

The fallacy of all 15 Western Conference teams competing for the playoffs

When the Utah Jazz recently appointed Austin Angie as the new president, he was asked whether the team would be slapped again after three years of different degrees of play (including $100,000 fined last season for violating NBA player participation policies), and he simply replied: "You won't see this year."

Okay, then let's choose to believe it first. After a 13-28 start, the Portland Trail Blazers finally ended the season with a 23-18 record, and head coach Changsey Billups and general manager Joe Cronin also received a contract extension. New Orleans Pelicans players missed 208 games, while Spurs players missed a total of 385 games, which made them hope to rebound next season. So, if the Jazz really join the competition for next season, to the maximum extent that their existing roster can achieve, it means that all 15 Western Conference teams in the 2025-26 season will theoretically "work hard" to win.

This is ridiculous and not in line with reality. The Memphis Grizzlies seem to know this because they are the first team in the West to assess the situation and lead the trade. The Grizzlies sent Bain to the Magic and received a generous reward, mainly draft picks.

Does all these Western teams really make signings or hold back? impossible.

Then will another or multiple teams join the Grizzlies and send off talented players through trades?

is very likely.

The free agent market is the "renewal market"

With the changes in labor-management agreements, coupled with the lack of cap space and the lack of big-name free agents, the main focus this summer may be whether the players will renew their contracts with their team in advance. If they renewed, that's great. If they don’t renew their contract, there will be more rumors about their future.

Here are some players who can (or won't) sign huge new contracts this summer:

Luca Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: On August 3, he can renew his contract four years ahead of schedule on the existing contract, worth $229 million. But Doncic can (and probably financially wisely) sign a three-year $165 million contract and has a chance to choose to jump out of the contract in 2028.

Nicola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: Jokic has been a fantastic superstar for the past decade - no pressure, full effort, MVP, championship. Jokic has three years left in his contract, so there is no real need to renew his contract early, but he can indeed renew his contract for two years in advance. Although he has not returned to the Finals in the past two seasons and the Nuggets have let go of many talented players, Jokic has shown no signs of dissatisfaction with the team. So there is no reason not to sign for a few more years, right?

De Aaron Fox, Spurs: On August 4, Fox can sign a four-year, $229 million contract. And after the Spurs got him with three first-round picks trades this February, they could be expected to do so.

Devin Booker, Suns: The four-time All-Star can renew a two-year $150 million contract early after July 7 (this is not a typo, it is really $75 million per season), and all signs suggest that this will happen. Doing so will extend Booker's contract with the Suns until 2030.

Trey Young, Atlanta Hawks: He can sign a contract of up to four years of $229 million, but after four consecutive years of play-offs and management has personnel changes, we are not sure whether the Hawks will offer this contract.

Carl Anthony Towns, New York Knicks: Towns had an excellent first year with the Knicks, but he had three years left on his contract. But Towns can jump out of the last year contract and renew a three-year $212 million contract in advance to ensure that his contract for the next five years is guaranteed.

Ja Morant, Grizzlies: The 25-year-old guard has three years left in his contract and can be renewed for another two years in advance. But over the past four years, due to injuries and bans, Morant has only played 44 games per season on average, and the Grizzlies, who are the team's front, often have underperformed.

Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies: The Grizzlies can use their cap space to renegotiate and renew their contracts with Jackson — and the team is working hard to do so. Jackson has one year left to that $23 million team-friendly contract.

Taylor Herro, Heat: After playing his best season in his career, Herro can sign a contract of up to three years of $150 million in October. Herro may not quite meet the criteria for getting such a large contract, depending on who you ask. And the Heat have the opportunity to seek Hearo to sign a less valuable contract. Herro has one year left in the current contract. If he does not renew his contract in advance, his name will appear in the transaction rumors.

Christaps Porzingis, Boston Celtics: Porzingis is about to enter the final year of his contract with a salary of $30.7 million, and he is in the stage where he can renew his new contract. But the Celtics’ roster is already very expensive, and with the arrival of a new boss, the team faces an uncertain future, so Porzingis’s injury history could complicate the conclusion of a contract that both parties agree on.

Author: Brian Windhorst

Translator: GWayNe