Translator's note: The original text was published on ESPN, and the data in the article were as of the time of the original text (August 29 local time). The dates and times involved were local time

ESPN released its NBA summer forecast this week, analyzing everything that may happen in the league, from award selections, to championship predictions, to the turmoil and turning points of the league teams. The

expert team voted to predict the final rankings of all 30 NBA teams at the end of the season, to depict how the pattern in the Eastern and Western Conferences might evolve. However, general consensus is not necessarily true. (For example, our six predictions for each award in the 2024-25 season were all lost.)

With this in mind, the following will introduce five teams that may exceed their predicted winnings.

Related readings: Western Analysis: The Thunder reached the top, the Rockets strengthened their shortcomings, the Lakers attracted much attention, the Warriors fell into the play-offs, the Related readings: Eastern Analysis: The Cavaliers led the championship group, the Knicks Magic disrupted the situation, the Bucks and Celtics became the middle-level

Thunder

Forecast: 64 wins and 18 losses, the Thunder became the 22nd team in league history to win at least 65 victories. Of these teams, only two teams tied or surpassed 65 wins in the following seasons: the Bulls (72 and 69 wins, respectively) in the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons, and the Warriors (67 wins, 73 and 67 wins, respectively) in the 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons.

Most teams that achieved at least 65 wins in a single season saw an average of more than 7 wins in the following year, with only one team (the Warriors in the 2015-16 season) tied or improved their winnings.

Why can the new science championship break this rule? This is the result of a combination of factors: the Eastern Conference became weaker after the Pacers and Celtics star injury (the Thunder had a 29-1 record against the Eastern Conference last season); the Thunder retained the full roster and should continue to improve, especially given that Chet Homgren and Isaiah Haltenstein missed 75 games in total last season, their healthy return this season will be hugely helpful. When either of the two inside players were able to play, the Thunder achieved an astonishing record of 59 wins and 10 losses—which is equivalent to a 70 win.

Will the Thunder be the third team to win 70? Don't expect too much about this, but the Thunder can easily get the best record in the league and become the third team to achieve at least 65 wins for two consecutive seasons. There is a reason why coaches, scouts and executives ESPN interviewed this summer dare not assert that the Thunder cannot defend their title.

Clippers

Forecast: 50 wins, 32 losses

The Clippers achieved 50 wins last season, which is surprising because they were previously predicted as a playoff edge team. With Paul George signing with the 76ers and Kawhi Leonard playing only 37 games due to injury, the team still achieved such a record, which highlights coach Tyron Lu's outstanding coaching ability to the roster.

This summer, the Clippers replaced Norman Powell, Amir Kofi, Ben Simmons and Patty Mills with Bradley Bill, Chris Paul, John Collins and Brooke Lopez.

This makes the Clippers one of the most deep teams in the NBA, and their offseason operations have also won praise from rival scouts and executives.

This lineup is almost the opposite of the lineup formed by the Thunder: only three players in the Clippers' rotation are under 30 years old, and none are under 27 years old, but the Clippers can rely on their coaching team and lineup depth to fight age and injury risks. This should keep them moving forward and exceed last season's winning numbers.

Warriors

Forecast: 48 wins, 34 losses, 3}

Like the Clippers, the Warriors' predictions are on par with their winning numbers last season, and their roster is relatively old (although the lineup we predict is not complete at the moment, as the Warriors are waiting for a solution to the restricted free agent deadlock in Jonathan Kumingga).

This choice is betting on the combination of Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler that can produce a good chemical reaction. Last season, the Warriors achieved a record of 22 wins and 5 losses in 27 games that Curry and Butler played together.

Yes, there are a lot of age and injury risks here (including Al Horford, D'Anthony Melton and Gary Payton II, and they all seem to join the Warriors once the situation of Cumingga is resolved).

But as long as Curry, Butler and Draymond Green are relatively healthy, the team looks likely to exceed expectations.

Heat

Predict: 39 wins, 43 losses

Speaking of Butler, it may be surprising to see his former boss appear here. In Butler's trading farce, the Heat played a dull 37-45 season, entered the play-offs as the No. 10 seed, and were eliminated by the Cavaliers in the first round.

But the Heat brought in Powell, a scorer who averaged 21.8 points per game in the Clippers last season, which should help the Heat improve their offense that ranked 21st last season. Last season, the Heat had a record of 14 wins and 28 losses in critical moments, making them the third worst team in the NBA win rate. This, coupled with a weakened East, makes the Heat a team that is likely to exceed forecasts.

Raptors

Predict: 33 wins, 49 losses

Raptors had a record of 30 wins, 52 losses last season, when they tried their best to improve their draft picks, and Brandon Ingram had not played for the team for a second after he traded from the Pelicans in the middle of the season.

From the perspective of winning numbers, it is hard to imagine that the Raptors will be in this situation—especially in the East—unless the lineup is subject to a massive wave of injuries.

A few years ago, when the Raptors began to break up the roster under then-chief executive Marseille Ujri, the purpose was to quickly return to the championship ranks. The team's actions since then—including deals and early renewal of Ingram—confirms this belief. Teams like the Raptors that need to pay luxury tax when entering the new season will not expect to miss the play-offs.

Author: Tim Bontemps

Translator: GWayNe